January 2006 Archives

So frustrating. This time I got leads at all 4 tables in a set. Huge leads on some - one table I had AA and tripled up like the 3rd hand, had 2500 chips. At one point, I think I had 2200, 2050, 1900, and 1050. I busted out on ALL FOUR TABLES. Argh. The worst beat was getting all-in pf with 99 v 55, and having him catch a 5 on the river. Every hand was brutal. One I definitely screwed up, the other I sort of screwed up, and the last one I just got screwed.

On one, I completed in the SB with A6o, flop AKQ. I led for 225 (1/4 my stack), and someone pushed. I should have folded, and that was the most obvious screwup, I think. That board is scaryville. He had JT. Shafted. (No runner, runner full houses for me like the AQ guy)

On another, I called a fairly large raise with AKo. Flop AK5, 2 clubs. (I have no clubs). Pot is 575 and I lead 225. That's a big mistake, I think in retrospect. He calls. Turn 4c. I am nervous. I did not stop to think enough, and that was a mistake. I started this hand with 1525, and this was the only player who had me covered, with 2255. On the turn, I bet 425 and he minraises. Second mistake, because I probably should have mucked right there. But... top 2 pair... and I know he doesn't have 23/44/55. AA and KK are possible but only remotely so. After all, I have an A, and K and they're both out. That'd mean all 4 got out, and that's tough to believe. But why the minraise? I called pf and led the flop. But it's so hard to put someone on the nut hand - I know many players will raise there with AJ/AT/Ax, especially with the naked Ac. Damnit. So I moved in, he called. AcQc. The nuts. No A or K on the river for me.

Sigh. The last hand was a weird bubble hand, not too interesting. I completed in the SB after a limper with K7o and a K came. The rest after that was probably foreordained, but it pisses me off because I was the 3rd stack, and there was one short stack hanging on playing for 3rd. And he got it.

Ok. So. Yeah. I was lucky. First I called a push on the bubble with 88, he had AK. I won. (Yes, I was a 55-45 favorite, but you remember how I couldn't win the 98:2 battle?)

Then some guy completes. I check with 95o. Flop: Q9x. I check, he pushes. I took that to be a bluff and a half, and called. Nope, he has the Q. Turn: 5. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Very next hand I get AQ, and he pushes pf. I call, he has 86s. No one hits and I win with A-high, 1st place. Which is good. I try to be mentally on guard against tilt, but I'm not sure it doesn't sometimes affect my play. It's not like I'm furiously going "push! push!", it's more like tilting causes me to get into FPS (fancy play syndrome). Now that I've identified that tendency, it must be ELIMINATED. Anyhow, yay for first and pulling me out from being nearly 0-4 2x tonight. (Although with the 2nd set, the AA and 99 hands were so insanely unlucky and -EV, it wouldn't have been nearly as bad as the first set, where I had no such excuse)

Party Poker is Rigged

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Seriously, this is fully insane. All in pf AA vs AJ (with a huge overlay, too - I was going to like triple up). That's a 91:8 favorite. I lost. Like 2 hands later at another table: I limp 99, BB minraises, I call. 4 or 5 to the flop of A9x. It's checked around to me, and I lead for like just over a half pot. I am 95% sure the check raise is coming from the original raiser (duh). He c/rs all in with AQ and I of course call. Turn Q, river A. I'm sorry - W.T.F. I am a 98.5:1.5 favorite on the flop. Oh. My. God.

Later, I was a recipient of the tilt-inducing riggedness. I complete in the SB with T5 after 4 limpers. Flop J55. I checkraise and get put all in, and call. He has A5, but I turned a T. WTF. I mean, sure, I was due for some karmic payback, but wtf.

Yes, all I post about it poker. Shut up.

So I had this monster run up through 1/8. Capped on 1/8. I posted about that.

When I played in the evening 1/9, holy shit did I get hammered. Every time I bet I got called. Every time I showed down I lost, it seemed like.

Stats for 1/9:

12 played

1 2nd

Yes, that's right. I played 12 SNGs, I got *1* 2nd place. And 5 handed, I was down like 855 in chips at one point in the one I finished 2nd in.

This HAMMERED my ROI, which was down to like 5%. Go small samples!

Tonight, however, I brought the hammer down.

12 played
4 1sts
2 2nds

That's +$256 net and 97% ROI. Man, if only ever night could be like that.

That brings my ROI back up to a respectable 15.15%, and I believe actually makes my $ value a high water mark. (Yes, I had 17% ROI before, but my sample size has increased 20% while rollercoastering yesterday and today)

Anyhow, WOO.

+ROI

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After reading some postings from people making hundreds of dollars an hour playing poker, I thought I'd take it seriously for a while. I had a rough December and eventually starting pokertrackering my SNG results in the middle of that month. Since logging those results I had a breakeven (on 60 sngs) in late 2005, and was roughly breakeven for the first part of 2006. It's been a while since I've lost 2 games in a set (of 4) to 2 outers. (Yes, people who were dead to 1 or 2 cards sucking out against me was becoming a regular occurrence). I'm not sure if my recent results are a heater or just normal, but my ROI has soared this last week for 2006 from about breakeven to +17%. Last night I played 2 sets:

First set: 1 1st, 2 2nds
Second set: 1 2nd

And I was really close to finishing first in that 2nd set - at one poiint I had over 8k of the 10k in chips, but I couldn't win a race to finish it, even though I was a favorite in 2. But that's ok, since I had to suck out a little bit to get to 8k. Had an interesting hand where UTG raised and button pushed, and I was in the SB with a 6xBB stack (after posting) and AKo. I elected to fold, because I was afraid someone had a pair and the other had an A or K and was going to hurt my outs, making me 31%; that plus the off chance AA or KK is out. So I folded, but they had QQ and JJ and both an A and a K came. Grr. I don't totally regret the decision though. (And I did finish 2nd anyhow)

Anyhow, +17% roi is good. My account is now at an all-time high water mark, so my gains from this year have now obliterated last year's SNG losses. Some time this week I should be playing on Party Poker, and we'll see how soft the games are compared to Paradise.

grr

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So after a very good run, my poker tide has turned this weekend. Derek came over Friday and was sweating my cards in a series of 4 SNGs. The opposition was awful, and I was steamrolling them... the only problem being that I could never win. In 4 tourneys I busted out of one early, and the other 3 I was literally all in something like 10 times. I'd say 9 of 10 I was a coinflip or better, and 5-6 at least of those 9 coinflips I was the favorite. I did not win any. I'd just jam on the next deal and get more folds, build up my stack, and hammer them again. Unreal.

I've played 20 today. (Yes, big poker day.) Out of 20, I've only managed 2 1sts, 1 2nd, and 3 3rds. I've busted out 10th twice, and 4th *6* times. I've sucked out a bit but I've been hammered by bad beats like mad. Stuff like:

GAME #1189117917 (LEVEL VIII, GAME #3) - 250/500 NO LIMIT TEXAS HOLD'EM - 2006/01/01-15:25:42.5 (CST)
Table "Cala d'Hort" ($20 tournament) -- Seat 9 is the button
Seat  6: Lucas22  (5,915.00 in chips)
Seat  8: peanut109  (1,510.00 in chips)
Seat  9: Big Pot Fan  (1,575.00 in chips)
Seat 10: async  (1,000.00 in chips)
async   : Post Small Blind (250)
Lucas22 : Post Big Blind (500)
Dealt to async [ Jd ]
Dealt to async [ Ah ]
peanut109: Fold 
Big Pot Fan: Fold 
async   : Raise All-in (750)
Lucas22 : Call (500)
*** FLOP *** : [ Kd 4h 8d ]
*** TURN *** : [ Kd 4h 8d ] [ Kc ]
*** RIVER *** : [ Kd 4h 8d Kc ] [ Kh ]
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 2,000 | Board: [ Kd  4h  8d  Kc  Kh ]
Lucas22 bet 1,000, collected 2,000, net +1,000 (showed hand) [ As  4c ]  (a full house, kings full of fours)
peanut109 didn't bet (folded) 
Big Pot Fan didn't bet (folded) 
async lost 1,000 (showed hand) [ Jd  Ah ]  (three of a kind, kings)
-----------------------------------------------------

(I was a 67:24 favorite)


GAME #1188765789 (LEVEL VIII, GAME #3) - 250/500 NO LIMIT TEXAS HOLD'EM - 2006/01/01-11:45:30.6 (CST)
Table "Aldabra" ($20 tournament) -- Seat 10 is the button
Seat 1: async (1,775.00 in chips)
Seat 2: busyliving (1,680.00 in chips)
Seat 5: replay22 (3,445.00 in chips)
Seat 10: lorang (3,100.00 in chips)
async : Post Small Blind (250)
busyliving: Post Big Blind (500)
Dealt to async [ Qd ]
Dealt to async [ Kd ]
replay22: Fold
lorang : Fold
async : Raise (1,525)
busyliving: Call All-in (1,180)
*** FLOP *** : [ 2c 6s 7s ]
*** TURN *** : [ 2c 6s 7s ] [ Qs ]
*** RIVER *** : [ 2c 6s 7s Qs ] [ Kc ]
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 3,360 | Board: [ 2c 6s 7s Qs Kc ]
async bet 1,775, collected 95, net -1,680 (showed hand) [ Qd Kd ] (two pair, kings and queens)
busyliving bet 1,680, collected 3,360, net +1,680 (showed hand) [ 4s Ks ] (a flush, king high)
replay22 didn't bet (folded)
lorang didn't bet (folded)
-----------------------------------------------------

(68:26 for me there)

Whereas every time I was behind, I was coinflippish (at least 44% to win - like when my AQ lost to JJ. Yes, I'm a dog, but why is it 2:1 and worse underdogs suck out against me repeatedly, and I can't suck out on a coin flip?

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